Evening Standard Comment: The potential damage of an inconclusive poll

 

With just two-and-a-half weeks to go until the election and the main two parties still essentially tied, the battle is becoming more bitter. Labour today returns to the issue of the NHS, warning of a “nightmare” vision under a re-elected Conservative government. This is safe ground for Labour: as our poll today on key election issues suggests, it is ahead of the Tories on health by 13 points — and in the lead on welfare, immigration and education too.

But Ed Miliband’s party remains stubbornly behind on managing the economy: the Tories have a clear lead there, by 41 to 23 per cent. This is at the centre of the Tories’ case for re-election. For many in the City, the prospect of a Labour victory is uncomfortable. This week, at its annual meeting in London, HSBC will face renewed pressure from investors to quit London, following the Chancellor’s most recent hike in the bank levy — the kind of move that would be likely to be extended by Labour. More generally, business hates uncertainty, a situation guaranteed by an election as close-run and potentially inconclusive as this one.

Precisely those difficulties in a hung parliament are the other half of the Tories’ case: that a Labour minority government would be in hock to the SNP. That could indeed have a significant impact on key issues such as defence, though it remains unclear how far the SNP’s opposition to Trident would be a red line in any parliamentary co-operation with Labour. What is certain is that any such governing arrangement — or for that matter a Conservative-led government relying on the support of the Lib-Dems and one or more other parties — would be unstable, and probably relatively short-lived. Variations on the current deadlock may end up lasting some time.

Make boardrooms diverse

Chuka Umunna has a reputation for being centrist, yet in his interview with this paper today Labour’s shadow business secretary takes a radical position on boardroom equality. Britain’s corporate boardrooms are notoriously white: one study of FTSE 100 firms last year found that more than half had no non-white people at board level, and two-thirds had no full-time black or minority ethnic executive directors. Mr Umunna, a shadow cabinet rising star, says that the way to change this is through targets. He wants one in seven company directors to be from ethnic minorities, mirroring those groups’ share of the population at large.

Ethnic targets remain controversial, even more than those for women favoured by some campaigners. They bring inevitable concerns that companies would struggle to find enough qualified board members, given black and minority ethnic Britons’ poor representation further down the corporate tree. Those opposed to targets also argue that they would stigmatise BAME candidates, leading to an assumption by some that black and Asian board members have been appointed on the basis of race rather than ability. Yet Mr Umunna is right that without dramatic action the problem will not get better. Our boardrooms do need more diversity if our companies are to be able to understand and compete in global markets.

Mr Spacey’s farewell

Actor Kevin Spacey’s departure as the Old Vic’s artistic director is a poignant moment for London theatre. His star-studded farewell gala last night celebrated his 11 years at the theatre — as well as raising more money for its endowment fund. Mr Spacey brought quality and glamour to the Old Vic, as well as heralding the return of the actor-manager. London’s theatre scene will miss him.

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