General election odds 2019: Tories at evens to win December snap poll

Tom Herbert30 October 2019
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Bookmakers believe the Tory Party is on course for a win at the next general election after MPs backed a December 12 poll last night.

MPs voted by 438 votes to 20 in the Commons on Tuesday to hold a pre-Christmas election, paving the way for Parliament to be dissolved next week.

And since Boris Johnson's victory last night at the fourth time of asking, Betfair Exchange has priced a Conservative Party general election win at evens.

But while the Tory party is the bookies' favourite to win an overall majority at the next election, the Tories have seen their odds lengthened since yesterday when they stood at 10/11.

And there is also a chance of a hung parliament according to the bookies, with Betfair Exchange pricing a "no overall majority" at a fairly short 5/4 - meaning whatever the outcome, it will be very tight.

Jeremy Corbyn's Labour meanwhile are languishing at 20/1 to win outright, with the Lib Dems listed at 80/1 and The Brexit Party at an unlikely 200/1.

The Tory Party are also on course to win the most seats at the next election, with bookies listing them at 1/6. Labour are at 7/1 to win the most seats, with the Lib Dems far behind at 35/1.

Boris Johnson's party go into the campaign in buoyant mood, with one opinion poll at the weekend putting them 16 points ahead of Labour.

The one-page Bill, which MPs approved on Tuesday and enables the election to be held, now goes to the House of Lords, but it is unlikely to be held up in the unelected upper chamber.

Once it receives royal assent, it will pave the way for Parliament to be dissolved on November 6 marking the start of the campaign in earnest.

In the end, the Bill passed the Commons by 438 votes to 20 - although a vote to alter the date, which Downing Street warned would scupper the whole thing, was much closer with a Government majority of just 20.

Mr Johnson is aiming to restore his party's Commons majority, with the hope that it could end the Brexit stalemate in Parliament.

If the Tory party regains its majority, it will make it easier to pass any Brexit deal he puts forward.

Betfair Spokesperson Katie Baylis said: "With confirmation coming of a December 12th General Election we’ve seen plenty of betting on all of our political markets on the Betfair Exchange and it’s a close run thing between a result of a Tory majority and No Overall Majority with the odds moving constantly in the last 24 hours.

"This morning the Tories are slightly favoured at evens, a 50/50 chance, with no overall majority at 5/4 and Labour a distant third at 20/1.

"However on our Next Government market, a Labour/Liberal Democrats/SNP Coalition is now at odds of 10/1 having been at 17/1 yesterday at one point and we think this could be one of the key things to watch in the coming weeks."

Overall majority

  • No Overall majority - 5/4
  • Conservative majority - evens 
  • Labour majority - 20/1
  • The Brexit Party - 200/1
  • Liberal Democrats majority - 80/1

Most seats

  • Conservatives - 1/6
  • Labour - 7/1
  • Lib Dems - 35/1
  • Any other - 119/1

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